( ဧျပီ - ၂၁၊ ၂၀၁၉ ) “ ေရနံရွိလွ်င္ ဘာမဆိုျဖစ္နိဳင္ “ ၊ စင္ျပိဳင္အစိုးရ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ၾကီးအား ထရမ့္ ဖုန္းဆက္ ခ်ီးက်ဴး။ အေနာက္အုပ္စုတြင္ LNA ကာကြယ္ေရးဦးစီးခ်ဳပ္အား အေမွ်ာ္လင့္ၾကီး ေမွ်ာ္လင့္သူရွိေန။ ကဒါဖီအား ေတာ္လွန္ျဖဳတ္ခ်ခဲ့သူတို႔ ကဒါဖီ၏ သားၾကီးကို ဆႏၵမဲေပးၾကဖြယ္ရွိ
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((( Russia Today., 20 Apr, 2019. “'Oil is everything': Why Western allies like US & France swing weight in favor of Libya's Haftar. “ ကို Htay Oung, Oung Marine ဘာသာျပန္ဆိုသည္။ )))
အေနာက္နိဳင္ငံမ်ားသည္ ထရီပိုလီသို႔ တဟုန္ထိုးခ်ီတက္လာေနသည့္ စင္ျပိဳင္အစိုးရ၏ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ၾကီး ခလီဖာဟဖ္တာဘက္မွ ပါေနျခင္းမွာ သူတို႔၏ ေရနံအေပၚ အာသာရမၼက္ကို ျဖည့္ဆည္းေပးနိဳင္မည့္သူထင္၍ ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း၊သို႔ေသာ္ ဟဖ္တာမွာလည္း ဘက္ေျပာင္းသြားနိဳင္သူတစ္ဦးျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း နိဳင္ငံေရး ေ၀ဖန္သံုးသပ္သူတို႔က ေျပာၾကားသည္ဟု Russia today က ယမန္ေန႕ ေရးသားသည္။
အႏၱရာယ္က်ေရာက္ေတာ့မည္ျဖစ္၍ အျမန္ဆံုး အကာအကြယ္ေပးၾကရန္ ကုလသမဂၢအသိအမွတ္ျပဳ ထရီပိုလီအစိုးရ ( GNA ) က ကယ္ပါ ယူပါ ျပာယာခပ္ေနခ်ိန္တြင္ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ၾကီး ခလီဖာဟဖ္တာ၏ တပ္ဖြဲ႔မ်ားမွာ ျမိဳ႔ေတာ္ ဆီသို႔ မွန္မွန္ၾကီး ေရွ႔တိုးလာေနသည္။သို႔ေသာ္ GAN အစိုးရႏွင့္ သမားရိုးက်အတိုင္း ဆက္ဆံမွဳ႔ ထူေထာင္ခဲ့သူ အေနာက္အင္အားၾကီးနိဳင္ငံမ်ားသည္ စင္ျပိဳင္အစိုးရႏွင့္ ထိေတြ႔ဆက္ဆံေနသည္။ ထိုသို႔ျဖစ္ရျခင္းမွာ ဟဖ္တာ၏ တိုဘရုခ္အစိုးရသည္ ျပည္တြင္းစစ္ဒါဏ္ေၾကာင့္ ရစရာမရွိေအာင္ ပ်က္ျပားလွ်က္ရွိေသာ လစ္ဗ်ား နိဳင္ငံတစ္၀ွမ္းလံုး၏ အေျခခံစီးပြားေရးအေဆာက္အအံုမ်ားကို ထိန္းခ်ဳပ္ထားေသာေၾကာင့္ဟု ဆို၏။
လစ္ဗ်ား၏ ေရနံမွာ အရည္အေသြးျမင့္မားသည္။ ျပင္သစ္ႏွင့္ အီတလီသို႔ အဓိက ေပးပို႔၍ သန္႔စင္ခ်က္လုပ္ၾကရသည္။ လစ္ဗ်ားေခါင္းေဆာင္ ကဒါဖီျပိဳလဲရေသာ ၂၀၁၁ - ခုႏွစ္ ေလေၾကာင္းတိုက္ခိုက္မွဳ႔တြင္ ေရွ႔တန္းမွပါ၀င္ခဲ့သည့္ ေနတိုးအဖြဲ႔၌ အဆိုပါ ႏွစ္နိဳင္ငံလံုးသည္ အဖြဲ႔၀င္မ်ားျဖစ္ၾကသည္။
ကုလသမဂၢအသိအမွတ္ျပဳ လစ္ဗ်ားအစိုးရသည္ ထရီပိုလီတြင္ အေျခစိုက္ျပီး နယ္ေျမ ၁၀ ရာခိုင္ႏွဳန္းကိုသာ စိုးမိုးနိဳင္၍ နိဳင္ငံ၏စီးပြားေရးကိုလည္း မထိန္းခ်ဳပ္နိဳင္၊ ေရနံကုမၸဏီမ်ားအေပၚတြင္လည္း အာဏာမရွိပါ။
ကုလသမဂၢအသိအမွတ္ျပဳ လစ္ဗ်ားအစိုးရသည္ ထရီပိုလီတြင္ အေျခစိုက္ျပီး နယ္ေျမ ၁၀ ရာခိုင္ႏွဳန္းကိုသာ စိုးမိုးနိဳင္၍ နိဳင္ငံ၏စီးပြားေရးကိုလည္း မထိန္းခ်ဳပ္နိဳင္၊ ေရနံကုမၸဏီမ်ားအေပၚတြင္လည္း အာဏာမရွိပါ။
ေရနံတြင္းမ်ားႏွင့္ ေရနံမွေငြေၾကးအျဖစ္ ေျပာင္းလဲျခင္းမ်ားသည္ နိဳင္ငံ၏ နယ္ေျမ ၈၀ ရာခိုင္ႏွဳန္းကို ထိန္းခ်ဳပ္ထားေသာ တိုဘရုခ္အစိုးရ ဟဖ္တာ၏ စိုးမိုးမွဳ႕ဧရိယာအတြင္း တည္ရွိေနသည္။ ထိုအခ်က္မွာ အစိုးရတဖြဲ႔ ၀င္ေငြရရွိေရးအတြက္ အထိေရာက္ဆံုးေသာ စိန္ေခၚခ်က္ျဖစ္ေနသည္။ ဟဖ္တာႏွင့္ အင္အားၾကီးနိဳင္ငံမ်ားၾကား ေဆြးေႏြးေျပာဆိုလာရသည္မွာ လစ္ဗ်ား၏ သယံဇာတက အဓိကျဖစ္သည္ဆိုလွ်င္ အံ့ၾသစရာရွိေခ်။
ယခုရက္သတၱပတ္တြင္ အေမရိကန္သမၼတေဒၚနယ္ထရမ့္က တိုဘရုခ္စစ္ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ၾကီးအား “ အၾကမ္းဖက္မွဳ႔ကို တိုက္ဖ်က္ျခင္းႏွင့္ လစ္ဗ်ား၏ ေရနံအရင္းအျမစ္မ်ားကို ထိန္းသိမ္းထားျခင္း၌ ထူးျခားေသာ က႑မွပါ၀င္သူျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း “ တယ္လီဖုန္းျဖင့္ ဂုဏ္ျပဳေျပာၾကားသည္။ ဤသည္မွာ အေမရိကန္အေနျဖင့္ တိုဘရုခ္စင္ျပိဳင္ အစိုးရ စစ္ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ၾကီးထံ မ်က္ႏွာသာေပးသည့္ အေရြ႔တစ္ခုပင္ျဖစ္သည္။ ကုလသမဂၢသည္ အေမရိကန္အား ေထာက္ခံေပးေနေသာ္လည္း ေဒၚနယ္ထရမ့္က ကုလသမဂၢကို မႏွစ္သက္သည့္ ကိစၥမ်ိဳး ထရမ့္တြင္ရွိပံုမရဟု ထရီပိုလီ GNA အစိုးရ၀န္ၾကီးခ်ဳပ္ ေဖယဇ္အယ္လ္ရွာရာ့ဂ်္ေျပာခဲ့ဘူးသည္။ အၾကံျပဳရလွ်င္ GNA အစိုးရေနရာ ၀င္ယူမည္ဆိုလွ်င္ ေဒၚနယ္ထရမ့္က တားဆီးမည့္ပံု မေပၚပါ။
တစ္ဖက္ကၾကည့္လွ်င္ အာဖရိကရွိ ၄င္း၏ ကိုလိုနီေဟာင္းမ်ားတြင္ ေရရွည္ရင္းႏွီးျမွဳပ္ႏွံခဲ့ေသာ ျပင္သစ္သည္ လစ္ဗ်ားတြင္ ၄င္းတို႔ ၾသဇာေညာင္းသူတစ္ဦး အာဏာရလာမည္ကို လိုလားမည္သာျဖစ္သည္။
သို႔ေသာ္ အေနာက္အုပ္စုက ေမွ်ာ္လင့္အားထားေနၾကသည့္ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ၾကီးဟဖ္တာသည္ အသက္ ၇၅-ႏွစ္ရွိ ေနျပီး ေကာင္းစြာမက်န္းမာေခ်။ မည္သည့္အတိုင္းအတာအထိ ယံုၾကည္ရမည္ဆိုသည္ကိုလည္း ေမးခြန္းထုတ္စရာျဖစ္သည္။
လြန္ခဲ့သည့္ ၁၉၈၀ ျပည့္ႏွစ္တစ္၀ွိဳက္ လစ္ဗ်ားႏွင့္ အိမ္နီးခ်င္း ခ်ဒ္နိဳင္ငံတို႔ ပဋိပကၡျဖစ္သည္။ ဟဖ္တာႏွင့္ သူ၏အဖြဲ႔သား ၃၀၀ ခန္႔မွာ ခ်ဒ္တို႔၏ ဖမ္းဆီးျခင္းခံရေသာ္လည္း ကဒါဖီက တာ၀န္မယူခဲ့ေခ်။ ထိုအခ်က္မွာ ဟဖ္တာ ကဒါဖီ့အေပၚ ဟဖ္တာ၏ သစၥာေစာင့္သိခဲ့မွဳ႔ကို ျပိဳကြဲေစခဲ့သည္။
၂၀၁၁-ခုႏွစ္ေရာက္သည့္တိုင္ေအာင္ ဟဖ္တာသည္ ျပည္ေျပးဘ၀ျဖင့္ အေမရိကန္တြင္ ေနထိုင္ခဲ့ရသည္။CIA ဌာနခ်ဳပ္တည္ရွိရာ ဗာဂ်ီးနီးယားျပည္နယ္ျဖစ္ေနခဲ့ျခင္းမွာ ဟဖ္တာအား CIA ေထာက္လွမ္းေရးအသိုင္း၀ိုင္းႏွင့္ အဆက္အသြယ္ရွိသူအျဖစ္ ေကာလဟလျဖစ္ေစသည္။
ဟဖ္တာသည္ CIA ျမွဳပ္ႏွံထားသူတစ္ဦး ျဖစ္ခ်င္ျဖစ္ပါမည္။ ဟဖ္တာ အေပၚ ပံုေအာထားျခင္းမွာ လစ္ဗ်ားအား စစ္ေရးနည္းလမ္းျဖင့္ ထိန္းေက်ာင္းနိဳင္မည္ဟု ထင္ျမင္ရာသာ ေရာက္မည္ျဖစ္ျပီး လစ္ဗ်ား၏ ျငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရးအတြက္ ေမွ်ာ္လင့္ရာ မေရာက္ေပ။
(( အထက္ေဖာ္ျပပါအတိုင္း ကၽြန္ေတာ္လည္း ျမင္မိပါသည္။ အေမရိကန္၊ ျဗိတိန္ႏွင့္ ျပင္သစ္တို႔သည္ ကဒါဖီအာဏာသိမ္းစတြင္လည္း ယခု ဟဖ္တာနည္းတူ အၾကီးအက်ယ္ ေမွ်ာ္လင့္ကာ အူယားဖားယား အသိအမွတ္ျပဳခဲ့ဖူးသည္။ သို႔ေသာ္ ထင္သလိုျဖစ္မလာဘဲ လစ္ဗ်ားရွိ ၄င္းတို႔၏ စစ္စခန္းမ်ား ရုတ္သိမ္းသြားရသည့္အျပင္ စီးပြားေရးကုမၸဏီမ်ားလည္း ျပည္သူပိုင္သိမ္းခံလိုက္ရသည္။ ေနာက္ဆံုး လစ္ဗ်ားမွ ထြက္ခြာေပးခဲ့ရသည္။
ဒုတိယကမၻာစစ္ျပီးဆံုး၍ ၁၀-ႏွစ္ခန္႔ၾကာေအာင္ ဥေရာပတိုက္သားအမ်ိဳးမ်ိဳးတို႔က အစိုးရအျဖစ္ နင္ျပီး နင္ဆင္း ရာစုႏွစ္ခ်ီ အုပ္ခ်ဳပ္ျခင္းခံခဲ့လာရသျဖင့္ အျခားအေရွ႔အလယ္ပိုင္းသားမ်ားနည္းတူ လစ္ဗ်ားတို႔ကလည္း အေနာက္အုပ္စုကို မုန္းတီးစိတ္ရွိၾကသည္။ ကဒါဖီအာဏာသိမ္းျပီး ၄၂-ႏွစ္တာ အုပ္ခ်ဳပ္စဥ္ လစ္ဗ်ား၏ စီးပြားေရး၊ ပညာေရး၊ က်န္းမာေရးမွာ ၃-ဆေက်ာ္ တိုးတက္ခဲ့သည္။
သို႔ေသာ္ ကဒါဖီသည္ အလြန္ေခါင္းမာသူျဖစ္သည္။ နိဳင္ငံသားတစ္ဦးလွ်င္ အေမရိကန္ ေဒၚလာ ၁၄,၀၀၀ ျဖစ္ေနေသာ္လည္း ၄င္း၏ အစိုးရအဖြဲ႔တြင္ အက်င့္ပ်က္ျခစားျခင္း၊ နီးစပ္ရာ စီးပြားေရးသမားတစုႏွင့္ ေပါင္းစားၾကသည္။ ထို႔ေၾကာင့္ လူဦးေရ ၆-သန္းေက်ာ္တြင္ ၃-ပံု ၁-ပံု နီးပါးမွာ ဆင္းရဲၾကပ္တည္းေနဆဲျဖစ္သည္။ ဓေလ့ထံုးတမ္းအစဥ္အလာၾကီးသူ အာရပ္တို႔အတြက္ ကဒါဖီ၏ လက္၀ဲဆန္ေသာ ဘာသာေရးအျမင္မ်ားမွာ အစၥလာမ္ ၉၇- ရာခိုင္ႏွုန္းရွိေသာ လစ္ဗ်ားတြင္ အံမ၀င္ေခ်။
ထို႔ေၾကာင့္ ကဒါဖီဆန္႔က်င္သူမ်ားကတစ္ဖက္ ေထာက္ခံသူမ်ားကတစ္ဖက္ ျပည္တြင္းစစ္ျဖစ္ေသာအခါ ၀င္ခ်လာသည့္ အေမရိကန္ဦးေဆာင္ေနတိုးတပ္မ်ားကို ပုန္ကန္သူမ်ားက ပထမပိုင္းတြင္ ေက်းဇူးတင္မိၾကသည္။ လစ္ဗ်ားတြင္ အုပ္ခ်ဳပ္ေရးႏွင့္ ကာကြယ္ေရး ပ်က္ျပားကာ တိုင္းျပည္ ဗယုတ္သုကၡျဖစ္မွ အမွားၾကီးမွားျပီဆိုသည္ကို နားလည္သြားပံုရပါသည္။
လစ္ဗ်ားတြင္ အေနာက္မုန္းတီးစိတ္ ပိုမိုျပင္းထန္ေနပါသည္။ ဘယ္ေလာက္အထိ ျပင္းထန္သနည္းဆိုလွ်င္ ကဒါဖီအား ပုန္ကန္ခဲ့သူ ေတာ္လွန္ေရးသမားမ်ားသည္ ကဒါဖီအစိုးရပ်က္ျပားျပီး သားအၾကီး ဆာအိဖ္အစၥလာမ္ကို အရွင္ဖမ္းမိသည္။ ဆာအိဖ္သည္ စစ္ရာဇ၀တ္မွဳ႔ျဖင့္ ICC ၏ ဖမ္း၀ရမ္းထုတ္ခံထားရသူျဖစ္သည္။ ထရီပိုလီအစိုးရက ဆာအိဖ္ကို မ်က္ကြယ္၌ ေသဒါဏ္ေပးျပီးျဖစ္ေသာ္လည္း တိုဘရုခ္အစိုးရက ဆာအိဖ္အား ICC သို႔ လႊဲမေပးခဲ့ပါ။ လစ္ဗ်ား၌သာ တရားစီရင္မည္ဟု ဆိုသည္။ ၂၀၁၇-ခုႏွစ္တြင္ ကဒါဖီေတာ္လွန္ေရးသမား စင္ျပိဳင္အစိုးရက ဆာအိဖ္အား လြတ္ျငိမ္းခ်မ္းသာခြင့္ေပးကာ ခ်ဳပ္ေႏွာင္ထားရာမွ လႊတ္ေပးလိုက္ေလသတည္း။
ယခု ကဒါဖီ၏ သားအၾကီး ဆာအိဖ္အယ္လ္အစၥလာမ္သည္ အေရွ႔အလယ္ပိုင္း တစ္ေနရာတြင္ ပုန္းခိုေနျပီး လစ္ဗ်ား၌ လာမည့္ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲက်င္းပလွ်င္ သမၼတရာထူးမွ ၀င္ေရာက္ယွဥ္ျပိဳင္မည္ဟု ဆိုေခ်သည္။ ။ သတင္းဘာသာျပန္သူ )))
https://www.rt.com/…/456496-libya-warplane-shot-down-tripo…/
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'Oil is everything': Why Western allies like US & France swing weight in favor of Libya's Haftar
Published time: 20 Apr, 2019 15:11Edited time: 20 Apr, 2019 15:43
General Haftar, whose forces are on the move towards Tripoli, is the right man for the West to feed their oil appetites – but he is also the one who can switch sides quickly, analysts told RT.
Forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar are steadily advancing towards Tripoli, where the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) calls for help and hastily prepares to defend the troubled Libyan capital. But Western powers, who established formal ties to GNA, are also keeping in touch with their arch-rival – just because he controls an asset that decides almost everything in the war-torn country.
"Securing access to oil and protection of oil – that's what Haftar purports to do," Alessandro Bruno, an independent political analyst and Libya expert, told RT.
He explained that this oil is generally high quality, and it is mainly processed at refineries in Italy and France – the two NATO countries heavily involved in the Libyan turmoil since they helped topple Colonel Muammar Gaddafi back in 2011.
Nevertheless, he doesn't control Libya's finances and the national oil company, which has a HQ in Tripoli, explained Grigory Lukyanov, senior lecturer at Moscow-based Higher School of Economics.
"All money transfers relating to Libyan oil – even the oil that is drilled in Haftar-controlled parts of Libya – go through Tripoli," which make it extremely challenging to cash in on it.
Unsurprisingly, natural resources dominate much of the discussions between Haftar and major powers. This week, President Donald Trump hailed the Libyan strongman's "significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya's oil resources" in a phone call.
The move seems to signal that the US is swinging its weight in favor of Haftar, Bruno believes.
"It certainly suggests that Trump will not be obstructing Haftar's push into Tripoli as [GNA's] Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj was hoping," he said. Sarraj is seen as weak, "and Trump does not like the weak ... also he is backed by UN, and Trump doesn't like the UN."
Meanwhile, France, which has long-standing interests in former African colonies, wants him to become the one who may influence things in Tripoli.
On Thursday the GNA accused Paris of throwing its weight behind Haftar, saying it has severed any "bilateral security agreements" as a result. While France has denied allegations of "relentless backing" for the General, it still does its utmost to make him a legitimate political player, Lukyanov added.
Politics aside, France has also been aiding Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA). Likewise, Paris hopes that Haftar will advance French interests in the region, be it arms sales or drilling for oil.
But while the West sets its hopes for Haftar, there are a number of setbacks. The general "is 75 years old, he's not in complete health," Bruno noted. Age aside, his reliability as a partner can also be an issue. "How reliable is Haftar? That's a big question," the expert wondered.
Up until 2011, he lived in exile in Virginia, and the proximity to the CIA's headquarters in Langley gave birth to rumors about close ties with the US intelligence community. "Perhaps, he's a CIA asset," Bruno opined.
In the end, "Libyans will be the losers" because there won't be any prospect for peace since Khaftar "is determined to take power by military means," he concluded.
Published time: 20 Apr, 2019 15:11Edited time: 20 Apr, 2019 15:43
General Haftar, whose forces are on the move towards Tripoli, is the right man for the West to feed their oil appetites – but he is also the one who can switch sides quickly, analysts told RT.
Forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar are steadily advancing towards Tripoli, where the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) calls for help and hastily prepares to defend the troubled Libyan capital. But Western powers, who established formal ties to GNA, are also keeping in touch with their arch-rival – just because he controls an asset that decides almost everything in the war-torn country.
"Securing access to oil and protection of oil – that's what Haftar purports to do," Alessandro Bruno, an independent political analyst and Libya expert, told RT.
He explained that this oil is generally high quality, and it is mainly processed at refineries in Italy and France – the two NATO countries heavily involved in the Libyan turmoil since they helped topple Colonel Muammar Gaddafi back in 2011.
Nevertheless, he doesn't control Libya's finances and the national oil company, which has a HQ in Tripoli, explained Grigory Lukyanov, senior lecturer at Moscow-based Higher School of Economics.
"All money transfers relating to Libyan oil – even the oil that is drilled in Haftar-controlled parts of Libya – go through Tripoli," which make it extremely challenging to cash in on it.
Unsurprisingly, natural resources dominate much of the discussions between Haftar and major powers. This week, President Donald Trump hailed the Libyan strongman's "significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya's oil resources" in a phone call.
The move seems to signal that the US is swinging its weight in favor of Haftar, Bruno believes.
"It certainly suggests that Trump will not be obstructing Haftar's push into Tripoli as [GNA's] Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj was hoping," he said. Sarraj is seen as weak, "and Trump does not like the weak ... also he is backed by UN, and Trump doesn't like the UN."
Meanwhile, France, which has long-standing interests in former African colonies, wants him to become the one who may influence things in Tripoli.
On Thursday the GNA accused Paris of throwing its weight behind Haftar, saying it has severed any "bilateral security agreements" as a result. While France has denied allegations of "relentless backing" for the General, it still does its utmost to make him a legitimate political player, Lukyanov added.
Politics aside, France has also been aiding Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA). Likewise, Paris hopes that Haftar will advance French interests in the region, be it arms sales or drilling for oil.
But while the West sets its hopes for Haftar, there are a number of setbacks. The general "is 75 years old, he's not in complete health," Bruno noted. Age aside, his reliability as a partner can also be an issue. "How reliable is Haftar? That's a big question," the expert wondered.
Up until 2011, he lived in exile in Virginia, and the proximity to the CIA's headquarters in Langley gave birth to rumors about close ties with the US intelligence community. "Perhaps, he's a CIA asset," Bruno opined.
In the end, "Libyans will be the losers" because there won't be any prospect for peace since Khaftar "is determined to take power by military means," he concluded.
Credit - Htay Oung
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